China PPI Inflation Past Its Peak

China's PPI inflation likely peaked in June 2026, but ANZ expects an M-shaped profile with a rebound in early 2027. Consequently, the bank forecasts no change to policy rates for the remainder of 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China's PPI inflation likely peaked in June and is expected to moderate to 2–3% in the coming months.
• 2.The cost-push inflation cycle is expected to follow an M-shaped pattern with a potential second peak in Q1 2027.
• 3.Policymakers are expected to keep interest rates on hold throughout 2026 due to the current inflation outlook and growth-inflation mix.

Table of Contents

• Highlights of the data
• The outlook

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