US CPI Upside Inflation Risks Have Receded

US headline inflation is expected to have eased in June, driven by lower energy prices and softening wage growth. ANZ Research notes that upside inflation risks have receded, supporting a trend of gradual disinflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Headline CPI inflation is estimated to have fallen 0.1% m/m in June, driven by declining energy prices.
• 2.Upside inflation risks have receded following the US-Iran resolution, though data volatility remains expected.
• 3.Moderating wage growth and input price indices suggest underlying disinflation progress is set to resume.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Forecast
• Labour market signals further disinflation
• Pipeline inflation measures ease
• Inflation volatility and the Fed's inflation taskforce
• Fed and inflation
• Underlying CPI inflation measures to be in focus
• Headline inflation to ease; core disinflation to be gradual
• Core goods inflation pressures remain contained
• Underlying drivers of services inflation remain subdued
• The labour market is adding to price pressures
• Inflation expectations remain well-anchored

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial