Analysis of Ketone Sensors and Type 2 Non-Insulin CGM Market

This deep dive analysis explores the stable competitive duopoly in the CGM market between Abbott and DexCom, focusing on the massive $4 billion growth opportunity in Type 2 non-insulin patients.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The continuous glucose monitor (CGM) market share between DexCom and Abbott remains stable, with survey data showing split future prescribing intent and low competitive switching rates.
• 2.The Type 2 non-insulin (T2 NI) market represents the next major growth leg, potentially becoming a $4 billion market by 2030 if CMS reimbursement is established.
• 3.Dual-analyte ketone sensors face a mixed outlook; while they address a multi-billion dollar DKA hospitalization burden, clinical data showing CGM effectiveness in reducing DKA without ketone sensing suggests the product may remain niche.

Table of Contents

• Key takeaways:
• Abbott Laboratories
• Survey key takeaways:
• Ketone Discussion:
• Key stats:
• CGM and closed-loop pumps make strides in reducing DKA:
• The Type 1 market has solid utilization but is a small growth contributor today:
• DexCom ketone sensor thoughts:
• Type 2 Non-Insulin Discussion
• Assumptions
• Key T2 NI scenario analysis points:
• Where this analysis could be wrong:
• Timing expectations for CMS:
• Dexcom Stock Thoughts:
• Abbott Stock Thoughts:
• DexCom Risks:
• Abbott Risks:
• Fall 2025 Diabetes Survey Results Summary

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