Australian Labour Market Preview January Labour Force Survey

Westpac forecasts a 40k employment lift and a 4.2% unemployment rate for January's Labour Force Survey. The report highlights the challenge of interpreting data amid seasonal volatility and shifting RBA interest rate expectations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Westpac forecasts a +40k increase in employment and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2% for January.
• 2.The labor market showed a solid finish to 2025 despite recent monthly volatility in November and December.
• 3.Expectations for interest rate support in 2026 have shifted significantly, which may lead to a flatter employment recovery.

Table of Contents

• Key points
• Fine-tuning in a volatile world
• What has happened in the data recently?
• Why did December surprise?
• What to watch out for in January
• Our forecast
• Corporate Directory

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