USDPLN: Short-Term Pressures, Medium-Term Strength

UBS maintains a medium-term bullish view on the Polish zloty against the US dollar, forecasting 3.55 by year-end 2026 despite near-term geopolitical and energy-related pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Short-term energy price elevation due to Middle East disruptions favors the USD over the PLN, as the US is a net energy exporter and Poland an importer.
• 2.Medium-term USDPLN strength is expected as markets shift focus to US twin deficits and the start of a new Federal Reserve Chair's term.
• 3.The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has shifted to a more hawkish tone, with Governor Glapinski signaling potential rate hikes as soon as June if inflation exceeds targets.

Table of Contents

• Our view and risks
• Key drivers
• Monetary policy
• Politics
• Ukraine war
• Risks to our view
• Appendix

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