UBS has lowered its 2026-27 oil price forecasts citing faster-than-expected oil flow recovery through the Strait of Hormuz following a US-Iran MoU. Markets currently face near-term oversupply, though price support may return in 2027 through inventory restocking.
Key Takeaways
- 1.UBS cut its 2026-27 oil price forecasts due to the US-Iran MoU and increased oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2.The market is currently oversupplied in the near-term, as floating storage in the Gulf normalizes and Chinese imports remain suppressed.
Table of Contents
- Global Oil Fundamentals
- Oil price update: path to normalisation
- Solid progress to date, but risks remain
- Pace of normalisation and Chinese imports
- Equities
- Global Oil Market
- UBS Scenario
- Upside price scenarios
- Downside price scenario
- Key questions
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Authors
Henri Patricot, CFANayoung KimJoshua StoneJosh Silverstein
Securities
Brent Crude OilWTI Crude Oil
Themes
Geopolitical RiskOil Supply/Demand Balance
Regions
Middle EastUnited StatesIranChina