UBS projects that month-end equity rebalancing flows will provide support for the USD, particularly against the EUR, JPY, and CHF. However, the firm notes that the historical predictive power of these equity-based signals has recently declined.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Equity rebalancing flows are expected to provide support to the USD against G10 peers at month-end.
- 2.The USD buying effect is most pronounced vs EUR, JPY, and CHF due to their equity market outperformance in June.
- 3.The explanatory power of relative equity returns for month-end FX trading is weakening, warranting caution.
Table of Contents
- FX and month-end equity rebalancing: June '26
- Valuation Method and Risk Statement
- Required Disclosures
- Analyst Certification
- UBS Global Research Disclaimer
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Authors
Alvise MarinoShahab JalinoosBenjamin JarrettMeena Bassily
Securities
S&P 500Eurostoxx 50NKYSwiss Market Index
Themes
Month-end equity rebalancingUSD Strength
Regions
GlobalUnited StatesJapanSwitzerland