Global Economics and Strategy Core Convictions

UBS's weekly report highlights that resilient global hard data, driven by the AI supply chain, is offsetting weakness in soft economic indicators. They remain tactically constructive on USD and selective carry trades, while expecting the Fed to maintain current rates.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Cooler US jobs data supports keeping Fed policy on hold and steepening of the 2s10s curve.
• 2.AI/Tech trade continues to drive market dynamics, accounting for 80% of global trade growth.
• 3.UBS remains positive on USD despite recent tactical weakness, while leaning bearish on JPY.

Table of Contents

• Core Convictions (Multi-Asset Rundown)
• All our views on markets in a single page
• Highlights this week
• Economics
• Cross-Asset Views
• Valuation Method and Risk Statement
• Required Disclosures
• UBS Global Research Disclaimer

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