Forex and Commodities: The Week Ahead

As the Iran conflict continues with oil at USD 100/bbl, central banks face a decisive June where hawkish pivots are expected due to resilient growth. UBS recommends tactical shorts in USDJPY and long positions in SEK against CHF.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Central banks are entering a pivotal period where hawkish communication is likely in June due to resilient economic activity and persistent inflation risks.
• 2.Oil prices have stabilized near USD 100/bbl despite the ongoing Iran conflict, failing to trigger the growth shock initially feared by markets.
• 3.Tactical opportunities include shorting USDJPY at the 160 level and going long SEK against the CHF as a recovery play.

Table of Contents

• FX opportunities of the week
• Yield pickup opportunities of the week
• Comments on recent opportunities
• Comments on select currencies and commodities
• Data calendar
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix

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