The Norwegian krone has appreciated over 10% this year against the Euro, and UBS has lowered its EURNOK price targets to 10.70 for year-end 2026. This view is supported by Norges Bank's rate hikes and high oil prices, despite risks of a temporary reversal if energy prices normalize.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Norwegian krone has rallied significantly in 2026, supported by higher oil prices, positive risk sentiment, and Norges Bank's resumption of rate hikes.
- 2.Norges Bank hiked rates to 4.25% in May 2026 to combat sticky inflation (3.6%) and strong wage growth (4.3%).
- 3.UBS has revised its EURNOK forecasts lower, targeting 10.70 by December 2026 and 10.50 by June 2027.
Table of Contents
- External environment is supportive
- Norges Bank to hike further
- Investment considerations
- Prospects
- Boundaries
- Risk factors
- Appendix
- Risk information
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Authors
Clémence DumoncelConstantin Bolz
Securities
EURNOK
Themes
Monetary Policy DivergenceEnergy-Driven Currency Performance
Regions
EuropeNorway