UBS anticipates inflation moderation and a softer Fed policy trajectory, viewing current bond market pricing as overly hawkish. They remain constructive on the semiconductor sector despite recent volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Recent market volatility was driven by US-Iran tensions causing a spike in Brent crude and Treasury yields.
- 2.UBS expects inflation to moderate in the second half of the year as energy prices and tariff-related impacts decline.
- 3.Market pricing of Fed policy is considered too hawkish, suggesting an opportunity to lock in income in quality fixed income.
Table of Contents
- From the studio
- Thought of the day
- What to watch: 15 July
- Caught our attention
- Market update
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Authors
Ulrike Hoffmann-BurchardiMark HaefeleDaisy TsengLeslie FalconioDelwin Kurnia Limas
Securities
S&P 500TSMC
Themes
AI demandGeopolitical riskInflation outlook
Regions
North AmericaAsia PacificEuropeUnited StatesIranChina