AI The Bulls Are Right When

Dario Perkins argues that the AI investment boom is currently circular, with the vast majority of industry revenue generated by tech companies reinvesting capex into each other. He suggests that long-term sustainability requires a transition to revenue generated by external, real-world productivity gains.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The current AI ecosystem is circular, with 85% of revenues derived from capital expenditure recycling within the tech sector rather than external corporate or consumer demand.
• 2.Sustainability in the AI investment boom requires a shift where a greater proportion of earnings originates from outside the tech ecosystem.
• 3.Theoretical productivity gains from AI, estimated at a 0.6% annual boost, are significant but currently lack evidence of broad, intensive adoption.

Table of Contents

• Macro Picture - Chart Story
• Disclaimer

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