This report details current market-implied policy rate paths for G10 central banks, highlighting a trend of higher market pricing relative to SEB and central bank forecasts for the Riksbank and Norges Bank.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Market pricing for the Riksbank is significantly higher than both the Riksbank's March 2026 forecast and SEB's internal forecasts, especially for 2027 and 2028.
- 2.Norges Bank market pricing anticipates policy rates peaking at approximately 4.65% in early 2027 before a projected easing cycle begins mid-year.
- 3.For the ECB, the market is pricing in a 19bps increase for the June 11, 2026 meeting, compared to SEB's forecast of a 25bps hike.
Table of Contents
- The Riksbank:
- Norges Bank:
- ECB:
- G10, summary:
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Authors
Dana Malas
Securities
Riksbank Policy RateNorges Bank Key RateFederal Funds RateECB Policy Rate
Themes
Hawkish RepricingCentral Bank Divergence
Regions
GlobalEuropeNorth AmericaSwedenNorwayUnited States