What's Priced In

This report summarizes the market-implied policy rate paths for the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and G10 central banks as of May 12, 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market pricing for the Riksbank policy rate is significantly higher than both the Riksbank's own March 2026 path and SEB's forecasts for late 2026 and 2027.
• 2.The market is pricing in a peak for the Norges Bank key rate at 4.68% by late 2026/early 2027, which is 18bps higher than SEB's forecast of 4.50%.
• 3.Significant divergence exists between ECB market pricing and SEB forecasts, with the market pricing a rate of 2.78% by Dec 2026 compared to SEB's 2.25% forecast.

Table of Contents

• The Riksbank:
• Norges Bank:
• ECB:
• G10, summary:

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