Swedish Inflation Revised Forecast After April

SEB revised its Swedish inflation forecast following a significant undershoot in April, driven by services and energy. While fuel tax cuts will lower CPI later this year, rising electricity prices and the reversal of travel price drops create an uncertain outlook.

Key Takeaways

• 1.April headline and core inflation significantly undershot expectations due to services, food, and energy prices.
• 2.Low service prices driven by international travel are expected to reverse over the next 3-4 months.
• 3.A proposed government fuel tax cut of 3 SEK/liter is projected to reduce fuel prices by 15% and lower CPI by 0.4pp between July and November.

Table of Contents

• Revised forecast after April

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