Strong Recovery in March Implies Upward Revisions to Q1 GDP

Swedish economic indicators for March showed a strong rebound in both private sector production (1.1% m/m) and household consumption (1.4% m/m). This strength suggests that the weak Q1 flash GDP estimate of -0.2% will likely be revised higher when final data is released on May 29.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Both production and consumption data rebounded strongly in March after weakness in January and February.
• 2.The strong March data suggests that the preliminary flash GDP estimate for Q1 is likely to be revised upwards.
• 3.Despite the March rebound, GDP is expected to remain below the Riksbank's forecast, indicating a slower recovery than previously anticipated.

Table of Contents

• Key points
• Growth indicators, March
• Production and the GDP indicator
• Household consumption
• Deviation, final GDP vs GDP indicator
• Industrial production and orders, index
• Manufacturing production and goods exports
• Chemicals and pharmaceuticals

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