SEB
May 19, 2026
Oil Product Price Pain and the Strait of Hormuz Closure
Commodities StrategyCommoditiesEnergy
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving a massive 10 mb/d global inventory drawdown, primarily impacting refined oil products. Despite verbal interventions to cool prices, Brent crude remains elevated near $110/b with further upside risk in fuel premiums.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, causing global oil inventories to draw down by an estimated 9-10 mb/d.
- 2.While crude markets are currently cushioned by SPR releases and lower refinery throughput, the real pain will be felt in refined products like jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline.
- 3.Diplomatic efforts and verbal interventions by President Trump to cool the market have had diminishing effects as negotiations with Iran remain stagnant.
Table of Contents
- Crude oil comment
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Authors
Bjarne Schieldrop
Securities
Brent Crude M1Brent Crude 2027Jet Fuel Europe (ARA)
Themes
Geopolitical Energy RiskInventory Scarcity
Regions
Middle EastEuropeNorth AmericaIranUnited StatesUkraine
