Norwegian GDP: Weaker Growth Trajectory

Norway's mainland GDP grew by a lower-than-expected 0.2% in Q1 2026, hampered by a drop in private consumption and mainland investment. This growth trajectory suggests Norges Bank may delay its next rate hike beyond the June meeting.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Mainland GDP growth in Q1 2026 was 0.2%, missing both consensus (0.3%) and Norges Bank's (0.4%) estimates.
• 2.Downward revisions to Q4 2025 growth imply a lower absolute level of GDP than Norges Bank previously assumed.
• 3.Private consumption fell 1.0% q/q, largely due to a correction in electric vehicle purchases following the reduction in VAT subsidies.

Table of Contents

• Mainland GDP
• Overall GDP
• Oil investment
• Mainland investment
• Exports of traditional goods
• Private consumption
• Employment
• Implications Norges Bank

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