No Major Fiscal Shift

Norway's revised 2026 budget maintains fiscal restraint with a neutral impulse, utilizing 2.7% of the GPFG. Higher energy prices have boosted petroleum revenues, strengthening the overall fiscal surplus to 11% of GDP.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The revised 2026 budget proposal suggests fiscal restraint, with petroleum revenue spending reduced by NOK 4.9bn compared to the amended budget.
• 2.The fiscal impulse is estimated to be broadly neutral (0.0-0.1ppt), implying no material change for monetary policy.
• 3.Norway's overall fiscal position remains strong with an estimated 2026 surplus of NOK 655bn, or 11.0% of GDP.

Table of Contents

• Fiscal position
• Fiscal impulse
• Spending in relation to the fiscal policy rule
• Net cashflow from petroleum and oil prices
• Transfer from GPFG
• Macro projections

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