Market Pricing Update

This report summarizes the current market-implied policy rates for G10 central banks, specifically contrasting market expectations with SEB's own forecasts for the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and ECB.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market pricing for the Riksbank policy rate is significantly higher than SEB forecasts, with the market expecting 2.16% by December 2026 compared to SEB's 1.75% forecast.
• 2.Norges Bank market expectations also exceed SEB forecasts, with the market pricing a policy rate of 4.68% by year-end 2026 vs SEB's forecast of 4.50%.
• 3.The ECB is priced for a rate of 2.69% by December 2026, which is 44 basis points higher than SEB's forecast of 2.25%.

Table of Contents

• The Riksbank
• Norges Bank
• ECB
• G10, summary

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