Brent crude has stabilized around $100/bl despite direct military exchanges between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. SEB remains neutral on flat price but long volatility, citing significant upside risks and market exhaustion.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Brent crude volatility has spiked between $96 and $104/bl following a live-fire exchange between Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2.Despite military conflict in a major oil choke point, market price action is considered muted, suggesting exhaustion from headline trading.
- 3.IEA estimates a potential global oil supply disruption of 14 million barrels per day due to the conflict.
Table of Contents
- Three things worth highlighting
- In short
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Authors
Ole R. Hvalbye
Securities
Brent CrudeWTINYMEX Diesel
Themes
Geopolitical Conflict EscalationOil Supply Chain VulnerabilityMarket Apathy and Headline Fatigue
Regions
Middle EastNorth AmericaIranUnited StatesSaudi Arabia