Fading Tailwinds From Petroleum Investments

The Q2 2026 Norwegian Oil Investment Survey indicates a cyclical peak in petroleum spending, with nominal investments expected to decline in 2026 and drop sharply in 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Norwegian petroleum investment cycle is reaching maturity, with nominal investment estimates for 2026 showing a 2.5% decline compared to 2025.
• 2.Investment in 2027 is projected to drop significantly by 22.3% relative to 2026 estimates due to a thinning project pipeline and lack of new large discoveries.
• 3.Survey findings are neutral for Norges Bank as the data aligns with the central bank's projections of volume declines in 2026 and 2027.

Table of Contents

• Investment cycle
• Investment outlook 2026
• Investment outlook 2027
• Implications for Norges Bank

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