Hormuz Update Still Not Plain Versaillesing

The report evaluates the impact of the US-Iran 'Versailles' Memorandum of Understanding on the Strait of Hormuz. It concludes that while energy flows have improved, deep-seated disagreements make a return to military tension the most likely base case outcome.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A 14-point US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has led to a 60-day window for negotiations, but four major areas of disagreement remain.
• 2.The report identifies three logical outcomes: a US retreat, an Iranian economic opening, or a return to military tension after the US midterms.

Table of Contents

• Summary
• The MoU of Versailles: an armistice for 20 weeks?
• Misunderstanding 1: Hormuz tolls
• Misunderstanding 2: Sanctions
• Misunderstanding 3: Uranium
• Misunderstanding 4: Lebanon
• Yet it's open and shut re: Hormuz for now
• Swiss watch - for what?
• Outcome 1: Iran wins - a TACO diet
• Outcome 2: US wins - and per-Iran-stroika
• Outcome 3: New tensions > new actions
• Conclusion: No plain Versaille-ing on this Odyssey

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