Brazil Weekly Review

Rabobank's Brazil weekly review highlights the Copom's 25 bps rate cut to 14.25% amid global geopolitical uncertainty and domestic inflation concerns. The report also notes a revision in the USD/BRL year-end target to 5.35.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Brazilian Central Bank (Copom) cut the Selic rate by 25 bps to 14.25% with no forward guidance, citing global uncertainty and domestic inflationary pressures.
• 2.Rabobank revised its USD/BRL year-end 2026 forecast to 5.35 due to a narrowing interest rate differential and global dollar strength.
• 3.Brazilian retail sales declined in April, interrupting a sequence of positive growth, reflecting a challenging economic environment.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Week of 15 a 19 de June: highlights
• Monetary Policy
• Real Activity
• April Retail Sales
• Political Economy
• Markets Comment
• Week of 22 – 26 June: key events
• Macro Calendar: Next Week
• Macro Calendar: Previous Week
• Our scenario (vs. consensus): an update
• Brazilian asset markets update

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