Weekly Economic Roundup

The U.S. labor market showed continued strength in April with 115k jobs added, allowing the Fed to remain patient as it navigates inflation risks from energy and tariffs. PNC expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 as policy bias shifts toward neutral.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The U.S. economy added 115k jobs in April, showing a broadening and firming labor market compared to 2025's sluggish performance.
• 2.The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold through 2026 as it transitions from an easing bias to a more neutral stance in response to 'two-sided' risks.
• 3.April CPI is expected to remain elevated (+0.6% m/m) due to rising energy prices and a temporary shelter inflation 'catch-up' effect.

Table of Contents

• Headlines
• Job growth is rebounding in 2026...
• ... and broadening, which is equally as important
• However, the labor market is not yet a source of inflation pressure
• Fed to remain on hold as risks become more “two-sided”
• Court strikes down tariff authority used to replace IEEPA tariffs
• Energy prices and shelter catch-up to keep April CPI elevated
• Retail sales to cool after March jump
• Data preview
• Additional charts and tables
• Existing Home Sales
• CPI M/M
• PPI Final Demand M/M
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Retail Sales Advance M/M
• Business Inventories
• Empire Manufacturing
• Industrial Production
• Capacity Utilization
• Disclosures

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