Piper Sandler
May 19, 2026
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Weekly UpdateRates Govt BondsCommoditiesRates CreditEnergyFinancials
Persistent inflation data and rising energy prices driven by Middle East tensions have pushed U.S. Treasury yields significantly higher and shifted market expectations toward a potential Fed rate hike by year-end 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed WTI crude prices above $100/bbl, reigniting inflation fears.
- 2.Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically from rate cuts to a possible rate hike by year-end 2026, with fed funds futures now pricing over 60% odds of a hike.
- 3.Treasury yields have seen a significant weekly surge, with the 5-year yield rising 25 bps and the 10-year yield climbing to 4.60% amid hot CPI and PPI data.
Table of Contents
- Monday Morning Insights
- Economic Calendar
- Yield Curve Opportunities
- Loan Strategies
- Specialty Finance
- About us
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Securities
U.S. 10-year TreasuryWTI Crude OilSPXGoldman Sachs BDCU.S. 2-Year Treasury
Themes
Inflation Persistent FearsGeopolitical Volatility in EnergyFed Policy Hawkish Pivot
Regions
North AmericaMiddle EastUnited StatesIranJapan