Piper Sandler
June 9, 2026
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Weekly UpdateRates Govt BondsRates CreditEquitiesFinancialsOther
The Treasury market faced a significant selloff this week as robust economic data strengthened expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 11.4bps, reflecting a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate outlook.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The front end of the Treasury yield curve led a selloff following strong economic data including payrolls and JOLTS, pushing 2-year yields to fresh highs.
- 2.The market is now pricing in one full rate hike by year-end 2026, with a 63% probability of a hike by October.
- 3.Pipeline inflation concerns persist as ISM Prices Index data historically suggests a 2-4 month lead on CPI, though May data showed a slight edge lower.
Table of Contents
- Monday Morning Insights
- Economic Calendar
- Yield Curve Opportunities
- Loan Strategies
- Specialty Finance
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Securities
2-year TreasuryXAU
Themes
Bear flattening of the yield curveGeopolitical riskHigher-for-longer interest ratesInflation pipeline pressure
Regions
GlobalMiddle EastUnited StatesIran