Peru's June 7 presidential runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Robert Sanchez is exceptionally close. Markets appear unprepared for a Sanchez victory, suggesting significant volatility risks for the Peruvian Sol.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The second round of the Peruvian presidential election on June 7 is extremely tight, with recent private polls indicating a spread as narrow as 1%.
- 2.Both candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Robert Sanchez, face high rejection rates, reflecting deep polarization.
- 3.The market is potentially underpricing a Sanchez victory, implying a larger market sell-off for the Peruvian Sol (PEN) if he wins compared to the upside potential of a Fujimori win.
Table of Contents
- Peru - Election is between two hated candidates
- The election is too close to call...
- Rejection vote is very high for both...
- Results might not be announced on Sunday night...
- Sanchez seemed to have moderated, considerably, recently...
- Two starkly different views...
- Congress could block radical proposals...
- Sell-off if Sanchez wins will likely be larger than the rally if Fujimori wins...
Document Preview
Access the Full Report
Get unlimited access to institutional research reports with a 14-day free trial.
Authors
Benito BerberEmeline Gorguet
Securities
PEN
Themes
Political PolarizationEconomic Policy Uncertainty
Regions
Latin AmericaPeru