May Jobs Preview

Natixis forecasts a modest 75k gain in May nonfarm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, indicating a cooling but stable labor market.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Natixis expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 75k in May, falling below the consensus estimate of 85k.
• 2.The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.4% from a previous unrounded 4.3%.
• 3.The cooling labor market is not expected to be severe enough to shift the Fed's primary focus away from inflation.

Table of Contents

• We expect a 75k payroll gain in May
• The unemployment rate will rise slightly...
• ...as labor force participation ticks higher
• Disclaimer

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