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Natixis

May 13, 2026

Cease-Fire on Massive Life Support

Daily UpdateRates Govt BondsCommoditiesEquitiesFinancialsReal Estate

Geopolitical tensions regarding a failing US-Iran ceasefire are driving up oil prices and pressuring risky assets, while UK political turmoil is weighing on Gilts.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The US-Iran ceasefire is at high risk of collapse, with President Trump describing it as on 'massive life support' and considering a return to combat operations.
  • 2.UK political instability and calls for Prime Minister Starmer's resignation have triggered a sell-off in the Gilts market, with 30-year yields rising nearly 9bp to 5.67%.
  • 3.Market focus is shifting toward upcoming US April inflation data, with headline CPI expected to rise to 3.7%.

Table of Contents

  • MARKET LINES
  • Rates
  • FX
  • Equities
  • Credit
  • Commodities
  • HIGHLIGHTS
  • DAY AHEAD
  • MARKET RECAP
  • INDUSTRY NEWS
  • Transportation & Mobility
  • RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
  • RESEARCH LATEST FORECASTS
  • RESEARCH EVENTS

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Securities

Intesa SanpaoloCommerzbankVNABMW.DEUK 30-year GiltBrent Crude

Themes

Geopolitical EscalationInflationary PersistenceArtificial Intelligence in Commercial Real Estate

Regions

EuropeNorth AmericaMiddle EastUnited StatesUnited KingdomIran