Natixis
May 10, 2026
Beijing to Push Trump on Taiwan
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsOtherInformation Technology
As Donald Trump prepares for a May 2026 visit to Beijing, China is expected to push for concessions on Taiwan, specifically targeting the cancellation of an $11 billion US arms sale.
Key Takeaways
- 1.President Trump enters the May 2026 Beijing summit in a weak negotiating position due to domestic economic pressure from tariffs and the ongoing Iran conflict.
- 2.China intends to use the summit to prioritize Taiwan's reunification, specifically aiming to halt an $11 billion US arms sale package.
- 3.A crisis in the Taiwan Strait would have catastrophic global economic effects, potentially exceeding the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure due to Taiwan's 90% share of advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
Table of Contents
- ASIA MACRO INSIGHTS
- Beijing to push Trump on Taiwan, with potentially global consequences
- Natixis CIB Research
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Alicia Garcia Herrero
Securities
TSMC
Themes
US-China GeopoliticsSemiconductor Supply Chain SecurityTaiwan Reunification
Regions
Asia PacificNorth AmericaMiddle EastChinaUnited StatesTaiwan