April CPI Recap

April CPI was slightly hotter than expected with core rising 0.38% m/m, driven by energy shocks and statistical anomalies in shelter reporting. Consequently, the FOMC is expected to maintain a restrictive policy stance and remove its easing bias in June.

Key Takeaways

• 1.April Core CPI rose 0.38% month-over-month, exceeding consensus expectations and bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.8%.
• 2.The headline inflation surge to 3.8% y/y was largely driven by energy prices resulting from the Iran war.
• 3.A statistical quirk involving a catch-up in housing data following a prior government shutdown inflated shelter prices in April.

Table of Contents

• US MACRO SNAPSHOT
• April CPI Recap: Boosted by one-offs, but still uncomfortably high
• Core inflation ticked up driven by shelter prices
• Shelter CPI rose 0.6% m/m in April
• Disclaimer

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