MUFG
May 12, 2026
Rupiah Near Lows as Energy Shock Persists
FX StrategyFXCommoditiesRates Govt BondsEnergy
The Indonesian rupiah is under significant pressure above 17,400 as energy shocks keep oil prices high, prompting Bank Indonesia to raise SRBI yields and consider a rate hike. Other oil-sensitive currencies like INR and PHP are also weakening as global supply disruptions persist.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Indonesian rupiah is trading near lows (>17,400) due to energy disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and low inventory buffers.
- 2.Brent crude remains above $100/bbl, causing oil-sensitive Asian currencies like INR, PHP, and THB to underperform.
- 3.Bank Indonesia is aggressively using SRBI bills to attract capital, with yields exceeding 6%, and a policy rate hike is increasingly likely.
Table of Contents
- Market Highlights
- Ahead Today
- Indicative Rates
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Authors
Lloyd Chan
Securities
USDIDRUSDINRCO1Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SRBI)
Themes
Energy Supply Chain ShockCentral Bank Policy ReactivityInflationary Pressure
Regions
Asia PacificNorth AmericaIndonesiaIndiaUnited States
