This report previews the June 2026 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, forecasting a neutral policy stance with no rate cuts in 2026. The authors expect the Fed to remove its easing bias and shift the dot plot upwards due to persistent inflation pressures.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The base case for the June 2026 FOMC meeting is a neutral hold, with the committee expected to drop the easing bias and provide a hawkish shift in the dot plot.
- 2.Chair Warsh is expected to push back on remaining rate hike expectations, reinforcing the Fed's dual mandate focus while keeping balance sheet adjustments on traditional paths.
Table of Contents
- FOMC Meeting Views
- SEP Analysis
- Fed (Chair Transition Studies)
- Macro
- Market Thoughts
- Disclaimer
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Authors
George GoncalvesAgron NicajTarun Chandanala
Securities
SPX
Themes
Fed Chair TransitionMonetary Policy NormalizationInflationary Supply-Side Shocks
Regions
GlobalUnited StatesIran