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MUFG

July 13, 2026

JPY Weekly

Weekly UpdateEquitiesFXRates Govt BondsFinancials

This report details recent volatility in the USD/JPY pair driven by Japanese policy rhetoric and Middle East geopolitical tensions. It highlights a government pivot to stabilize JGB yields and potential pension fund inflows as key supportive factors for the Yen.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The Japanese government is revising the 'honebuto' policy draft to clarify it is not a warning against BOJ rate hikes, helping to stabilize long-term JGB yields.
  • 2.Finance Minister Katayama's interest in supporting domestic asset investment by pension funds (like the GPIF) could catalyze yen buying.

Table of Contents

  • Week in review
  • Long-term yields approach 3%
  • Reports of revisions to the honebuto policy
  • Pension funds bring yen buying to mind
  • Plenty of Fed-related events, but dollar strength may be hard to generate

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Authors

Teppei Ino

Securities

USDJPY10y JGB

Themes

Fiscal Policy and Debt SustainabilityMonetary Policy Normalization

Regions

Asia PacificMiddle EastJapanUnited StatesIran