The report analyzes suspected Japanese FX intervention during Golden Week and highlights US Treasury Secretary Bessent's upcoming visit as a potential catalyst for JPY sentiment. MUFG forecasts a USD/JPY range of 155.00–159.00 for the week.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Circumstantial evidence, including discrepancies in BOJ current account balances, suggests Japanese authorities conducted substantial yen-buying intervention during the Golden Week holiday.
- 2.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's visit to Japan (starting May 11) is critical; while he is unlikely to restrain intervention, he may signal expectations for BOJ monetary policy adjustments.
- 3.Market expectations for a BOJ rate hike in June are currently priced at approximately 70%.
Table of Contents
- Week in review
- Circumstantial evidence points to repeated FX intervention
- Could Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan impact currency and monetary policy?
- President Trump's visit to China points to easing Middle East tensions
- Forecast range
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Authors
Teppei Ino
Securities
USDJPY
Themes
FX InterventionMonetary Policy CoordinationGeopolitical Risk
Regions
Asia PacificNorth AmericaMiddle EastJapanUnited StatesChina