The report analyzes recent USD/JPY volatility and suspected Japanese FX interventions during the Golden Week holidays. It highlights the potential impact of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Japan visit and President Trump's upcoming China trip on monetary policy and geopolitical risks.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Evidence strongly suggests Japanese authorities intervened multiple times during the Golden Week holiday to combat yen weakness.
- 2.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's visit to Japan may influence BOJ policy expectations and anchor inflation expectations.
- 3.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are viewed as temporary, with President Trump's upcoming China visit signaling a return to diplomatic stability.
Table of Contents
- Week in review
- Circumstantial evidence points to repeated FX intervention
- Could Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan impact currency and monetary policy?
- President Trump's visit to China points to easing Middle East tensions
- Forecast range
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Authors
Teppei Ino
Securities
USDJPY
Themes
FX InterventionMonetary Policy DivergenceGeopolitical Risk
Regions
Asia PacificNorth AmericaMiddle EastJapanUnited StatesChina