MUFG
May 11, 2026
Asia FX Talk: USD Capped Despite Stronger-Than-Consensus NFP
FX StrategyFXMacro Economic IndicatorsCommoditiesEnergyInformation Technology
Stronger-than-expected US NFP data failed to trigger a sustained USD rally, while robust Chinese exports are providing support for regional Asian currencies. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist, keeping oil prices elevated and posing a challenge for net energy importers in the ASEAN region.
Key Takeaways
- 1.April US nonfarm payrolls (115k) beat consensus but the US dollar failed to rally, suggesting limited upside for the DXY.
- 2.China's strong export growth (+14% yoy) is expected to support CNY appreciation and benefit regional peers like SGD, MYR, and TWD.
- 3.Ongoing Middle East tensions and Hormuz Strait disruptions are maintaining a geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.
Table of Contents
- Market Highlights
- Ahead Today
- INDICATIVE RATES 8-May-2026
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Lloyd Chan
Securities
DXYUSDCNYBrent Crude OilXAU
Themes
USD Resilience vs Macro DataChina Trade SpilloverGeopolitical Energy Risks
Regions
Asia PacificMiddle EastNorth AmericaUnited StatesChinaIran