Run It Hot Takes a Detour to Ensure It Reaches Its Destination

The report highlights the stabilization of US equity markets following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which cooled precious metals and supported the dollar. Morgan Stanley continues to favor cyclicals and capex-intensive firms, specifically maintaining an overweight stance on Consumer Discretionary Goods.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair is a market-stabilizing move intended to restore confidence and cool the parabolic rise in precious metals.
• 2.The US administration's 'Run It Hot' debt-management strategy relies on fostering real GDP growth through private-sector productivity and wages rather than government spending.
• 3.Morgan Stanley remains Overweight on Consumer Discretionary Goods, viewing the recent pullback as an entry point supported by improving earnings momentum and stabilized pricing.

Table of Contents

• Weekly Warm-up: "Run It Hot" Takes a Detour to Ensure It Reaches Its Destination
• We Expect Consumer Discretionary Goods Outperformance to Continue
• 4Q Earnings Tracking (S&P 500)
• Key Charts
• Scorecards
• Price Reaction
• Surprise
• Company Guidance & Revisions
• Sales
• EPS
• Margins
• 4Q Systematic Earnings Tracking (Full MS Coverage)
• 4Q Preview Tracking
• Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Previews
• EPS Previews
• 4Q Results Tracking
• Structured Surprise Screens
• Fresh Money Buy List
• Weekly Charts to Watch
• Sector Ratings

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