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Morgan Stanley

June 9, 2026

The Viewpoint: Why Boosting India's Manufacturing Is More Important Than Ever

Macro ThematicRates Govt BondsEnergy

India is pivoting toward a manufacturing-led growth strategy to address structural balance-of-payments pressures and a burgeoning jobs challenge. This shift is becoming increasingly critical as AI threatens the growth prospects of India's traditional services export sector.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Recent policy measures should augment capital flows in the near term.
  • 2.India faces a medium-term funding challenge necessitating a rise in sustainable domestic savings.
  • 3.Boosting manufacturing and goods export competitiveness is critical to narrowing the current account deficit and attracting capital.

Table of Contents

  • Key Takeaways
  • How to solve India’s medium-term funding challenge
  • Why is the balance of payments under pressure?
  • What explains the capital outflows?
  • How to solve India's balance of payments deficit problem?
  • The medium-term solution: Boosting manufacturing and exports
  • What India needs – A systematic policy approach

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Authors

Chetan AhyaDerrick Y KamJonathan CheungKelly WangSudhanshu Agarwal

Securities

BSE500

Themes

Manufacturing competitivenessAI DisruptionBalance of Payments

Regions

Asia PacificChina