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Morgan Stanley

June 11, 2026

Global Thematics: Thematics Plus Mathematics

Macro ThematicEquitiesEnergyInformation Technology

This report explores the underlying mathematics of key 2026 investment themes, particularly within the AI infrastructure, compute, and energy sectors. It highlights quantitative drivers of alpha in token economics, data center valuation, and thematic volatility strategies.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Mathematical relationships across thematic investment ideas are currently under-explored and represent significant alpha opportunities.
  • 2.Key investment strategies focus on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, compute manufacturing, energy security for AI, and Agentic AI beneficiaries.
  • 3.Value creation for 'powered shell' data center leases is ~15x higher per gigawatt compared to renewable power purchase agreements.

Table of Contents

  • Key Takeaways
  • Thematics + Mathematics
  • Token math
  • Compute demand growth relative to supply growth
  • 10x compute used for training = 2x increase in LLM capabilities
  • Recursive LLM self-improvement
  • Bridging time to power math with REIT math
  • Taking advantage on the mathematics of volatility
  • Disclosure Section
  • Analyst Certification
  • Global Research Conflict Management Policy
  • Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
  • STOCK RATINGS
  • Global Stock Ratings Distribution
  • Analyst Stock Ratings
  • Analyst Industry Views
  • Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

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Authors

Stephen C ByrdNikolaj LippmannRonald HoStephan M KesslerMichelle M. WeaverAnna Feldman

Securities

NVDA006400.KSWULFEQIX.O

Themes

AI InfrastructureCompute EconomicsEnergy SecurityAgentic AI

Regions

GlobalAsia PacificUnited StatesSouth Korea