Market Expectations of Monetary Policy in QUICK Bond Market Survey

This report analyzes the divergence between hawkish OIS market pricing and more dovish QUICK survey results regarding Japan's interest rate path, against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty in Iran.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A significant divergence has emerged between the OIS market and the QUICK bond market survey for 2027 interest rate paths, with the OIS market pricing in a more hawkish trajectory.
• 2.The 'stabilization of the Iran situation' is viewed by 63% of survey respondents as a primary condition for the Bank of Japan's next rate hike.
• 3.The Bank of Japan is continuing its Quantitative Tightening (QT), with total coupon-bearing JGB holdings falling to JPY528.90 trillion as of April 2026.

Table of Contents

• (1) Market expectations of monetary policy as expressed in QUICK bond market survey
• DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK AND IMPLICATIONS FOR RATES OUTLOOK
• SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (ONE WEEK – ONE MONTH)
• MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK (SEVERAL MONTHS – ONE YEAR)
• Risk scenarios
• (2) Envisaged timetable for BOJ JGB-buying operations
• BOJ bond purchases in April (outstanding JGB holdings)
• (3) Yen rates relative value and investment strategies
• RELATIVE VALUE SCORE TABLES

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