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Mizuho Securities

February 4, 2026

Extraordinary Diet Session and BOJ Policy Outlook

Macro ThematicFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther

Japan prepares for an extraordinary Diet session on February 18, while Mizuho warns of potential early Bank of Japan rate hikes in response to yen weakness and US leadership shifts.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.An extraordinary Diet session is scheduled for February 18 following the February 8 election, likely to confirm Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister.
  • 2.The Bank of Japan's recent Summary of Opinions signals a hawkish shift, with the market focusing on rate hikes as soon as March or April to defend the yen.
  • 3.Downward pressure on the yen has intensified due to Takaichi's comments on weak currency benefits and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

Table of Contents

  • Extraordinary Diet session penciled in for 18 February / BOJ "hawks" set to speak in coming weeks, Noguchi's successor to be chosen
  • "Hawkish" BOJ policy board members to be given opportunities to speak / Appointment of a successor to Asahi Noguchi set to become a focus post-election
  • Important Disclosure Information
  • Analyst Certification
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Yusuke Matsuo

Securities

JPYBoJ Policy Rate

Themes

Central Bank Independence and AppointmentsMonetary Policy NormalizationPolitical Leadership Transition

Regions

Asia PacificNorth AmericaJapanUnited States