Global bond markets are currently dominated by oil price volatility and Middle East geopolitical risks rather than domestic macro data. Rates in the US and Europe remain elevated as markets price in energy-driven inflation, while Gilts and JGBs find some support from domestic data weakness.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Treasury yields are currently driven more by oil prices and Middle East geopolitical narratives than domestic data, with 10Y UST yields consolidating in the 4.5-4.6% range.
- 2.Weak European macro data (especially French PMIs) is being overshadowed by energy-driven inflation risks, which is keeping Euro rates in a bear-flattening regime.
- 3.Gilts are outperforming due to deepening domestic economic cracks, including disappointing retail sales and weak public finances.
Table of Contents
- USD
- EUR
- GBP
- JPY
- Important Information
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Evelyne Gomez
Securities
10Y US TreasuryCrude OilBundsGiltsJGB
Themes
Geopolitics vs Macro FundamentalsEnergy-Driven Inflation Risks
Regions
North AmericaEuropeUKUnited StatesFranceUnited Kingdom