EMEA G4 Rates and FX Monthly

This report outlines the impact of the US-Iran conflict on global G4 markets, anticipating higher inflation, ECB hikes, and a bearish outlook for long-dated duration.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving inflationary pressures and shaping central bank policy expectations across G4 nations.
• 2.The ECB is expected to initiate a rate-hiking cycle in June/September due to rising inflation, while the Fed is seen on a prolonged hold despite hawkish rhetoric.

Table of Contents

• The Background
• The View
• USD
• EUR Rates
• EUR FX
• GBP
• JPY
• XCCY
• The view in full
• EUR Policy
• EUR Rates
• EUR FX
• USD Policy
• USD Rates
• USD FX
• GBP Policy
• GBP Rates
• GBP FX
• JPY Policy
• JPY Rates
• JPY FX
• Mizuho Key Forecasts
• Important Information