G4 Rates And FX Monthly

This report outlines Mizuho's G4 outlook, highlighting Fed and BoJ hiking paths compared to an ECB peaking and a BoE on hold. It underscores the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices, inflation, and rate volatility.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Expect two Fed hikes in 2026 (Sep/Dec) as US economic data remains resilient despite slowdown concerns.
• 2.ECB expected to deliver one final rate hike in September 2026 with risks skewed toward less tightening.
• 3.BoE is in an 'active hold' mode for 2026, opting to look through temporary inflation shocks.

Table of Contents

• The Background
• The View
• USD
• EUR Rates
• EUR FX
• GBP
• JPY
• XCCY
• The view in full
• EUR Policy
• EUR Rates
• EUR FX
• USD Policy
• USD Rates
• USD FX
• GBP Policy
• GBP Rates
• GBP FX
• JPY Policy
• JPY Rates
• JPY FX

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