EMEA G4 Rates & FX Monthly

Mizuho's G4 Monthly highlights hawkish central bank outlooks amidst geopolitical tensions and oil price pressures, forecasting rate hikes for the Fed and BoJ, and a terminal hike from the ECB.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Fed is expected to hike twice this year (Sep/Dec), with DXY expected to reach 102 by Sep-26 before selling off to 100 by year-end.
• 2.The ECB is expected to deliver its final hike in September, with 10yr Bunds moving towards 3.50%.
• 3.BoE is likely to stay on hold for the remainder of the year due to economic uncertainty, while 10Y Gilts move above 5.0%.

Table of Contents

• The Background
• The View
• USD
• EUR Rates
• EUR FX
• GBP
• JPY
• XCCY
• The view in full
• EUR Policy
• EUR Rates
• USD Policy
• USD Rates
• USD FX
• GBP Policy
• GBP Rates
• GBP FX
• JPY Policy
• JPY Rates
• JPY FX

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