Mid-Year Global Economic Outlook

J.P. Morgan forecasts a cyclical global economic upturn in 2H26 led by tech and business investment. However, persistent inflation risks remain, expected to drive continued central bank rate hikes and potential financial stress.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The report maintains a forecast for a cyclical upturn in global growth for the second half of 2026, driven by a tech boom and non-tech investment recovery, despite energy price shocks.
• 2.Global headline and core inflation are expected to remain elevated above 3% throughout 2026, driven by energy costs and labor constraints, prompting further central bank rate hikes.

Table of Contents

• A cyclical state of mind
• You can't have your cake and eat it too
• Tightening pressures increase risk of financial stress
• The global economic outlook in summary
• G-3 economic outlook detail
• Global Central Bank Watch

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