Global Markets Strategy

This report examines market flows, positioning, and the structural risks to the crypto ecosystem from private blockchain adoption. It also highlights a modest reversal of the 'Hawkish Fed' trade and shifts in global FX reserve allocations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.MicroStrategy's bitcoin sales create periodic flow risk, but the broader structural threat to crypto remains whether tokenization accrues to public networks or incumbent infrastructure.
• 2.There has been only a modest reversal of the 'Hawkish Fed' trade that emerged in May/June, as market positioning data shows limited retreat.
• 3.Q1 2026 data indicates a modest reversal of 'de-dollarization' trends in FX reserves as central banks prioritize liquidity amidst geopolitical tensions.

Table of Contents

• Flows & Liquidity
• Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor
• Global Markets Strategy
• Cross Asset Positioning Monitor
• Only modest reversal so far of the “Hawkish Fed” trade which previously propagated during May/June
• Some reversal of previous 'de-dollarization' flows amid a preference for liquidity by FX reserve managers in 1Q26
• Appendix
• ETF Flow Monitor
• Short Interest Monitor
• Corporate Activity
• Pension fund and insurance company flows
• Credit Creation
• Bitcoin monitor
• Japanese flows and positions
• Commodity flows and positions
• Corporate FX hedging proxies
• Non-Bank investors' implied allocations
• Important Disclosures

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