Global Data Watch

The global economy is seeing a clash between a powerful cyclical bounce and a record energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict. J.P. Morgan maintains an expansion baseline assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, but warns of a hawkish shift in central bank policy due to rising inflation pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The global expansion is currently weathering the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict, supported by a strong cyclical bounce and fading business caution.
• 2.Central banks are pivoting in a hawkish direction as inflation resilience and spillover from energy to core prices make inaction difficult to justify.
• 3.Supply chain disruptions are creating specific 'squeezes', notably in the sulfuric acid market due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and a Chinese export ban, impacting fertilizer and tech industries.

Table of Contents

• Let's get cyclical
• Asia's haves and have nots
• Inflation bolsters hawkish shifts
• EM CBs eye core spillover
• Trump goes to China
• UK: Labor pains
• Romania's political noise continues
• Global Economic Outlook Summary
• G-3 economic outlook detail
• Global Central Bank Watch
• Economic Activity Tracking
• NLP of central bank speak
• J.P. Morgan Market Watch
• Oh, the places you'll go: On the cycle versus the shock
• The two R's: unpleasant monetarist arithmetic again
• The sulfuric acid squeeze: Hormuz & China export ban
• Euro area: Energy prices to lift core inflation by 0.3%-pt
• Australian CPI: Keeping trim
• US Focus: gas demand drop

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